We commissioned expensive polls of eight states and we discovered that Texas should be the focus for “national divorce” or secession efforts. This group of states includes every red state that has coastline, but support for secession in the other 7 states states didn’t come close to the support in Texas. This was better than a national poll because the poll in each state was balanced to be proportional to the actual composition of the state.The top results were described in our previous post, along with links to the data on SurveyUSA’s website.

Here’s some more results:

Coastline is important because it allows access to international trade and transportation even if the US refuses to allow transit on US territory. An embargo on international waters is an act of war that could draw a violent retaliation, while refusal to allow transit over US territory is a privilege of sovereignty. Although the split of the US could be initiated in Congress, it’s much easier to build majority support in a single state and force the issue by unilateral secession of that state.  So we believe that the secession movement should be focused on a coastal state (the Gulf Coast is the US’s third coast).

Blue-state secession is a possibility, as in California, but our poll of Hawaii showed that support in Hawaii is weak. In June 2021, California, New York, and Connecticut polled a few points behind Texas in support for secession of their region (the West Coast, or the Northeast, or the South).  California’s secession movement, “CALEXIT,” has far fewer volunteers than Texas does. New York and Connecticut have no secession movement yet as far as I know.

The results out of Texas show higher support for secession than has ever been published before, for a US state.  Apparently Texans have moved strongly in favor of independence recently. But their politicians don’t seem to have noticed. In the state legislative session in 2020, only 7 Texas state legislators cosponsored legislation to give Texans a referendum.  These excellent poll results justify us devoting serious time and money to TNM, the movement focused on Texas independence or “TEXIT.”

Alternatives to Secession

Unfortunately, the poll also shows that most conservatives still think US elections are the most promising place to put our time and money. This may be because they’ve been told by ignorant journalists that secession “can’t happen.”  We show why it can here.

Those of you who are waiting for a military coup or a Caesar to deliver the US into conservative hands, please realize that currently you’d be fighting a whole lot of boomer cons at this point so you’ve got a long wait. Less than 20% would “not resist” at this point.

Partial State Secession

In this poll we tested the popularity of ideas that we have proposed in previous blog posts, but they turned out to be less popular than the idea of the state of Texas seceding. We asked Texans and Floridians about splitting their states into blue halves and red halves, but they were opposed.  We still think Texas should trade El Paso for southeastern New Mexico, but we didn’t poll that question.

As a long shot, we have in the past considered the idea of a group of counties seceding from the US together.  We proposed various groups of counties in locations along the Gulf Coast in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Our poll showed that the states’ residents are opposed. In Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, the residents of the very conservative counties we had proposed might secede were polled, but even they are opposed to seceding as a group of counties. A surprise of the poll is that these counties are only slightly more in favor of state secession than their states are, despite being far more conservative than their state average. Perhaps coastal conservatives are less pro-secession than inland and urban conservatives.

In Texas, we had proposed the potential for two groups of counties seceding from the US: East Texas (not including Dallas or Houston), and the Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi to Galveston, all the way inland to the edge of San Antonio, Austin, and Houston. Unfortunately these areas are only a small percentage of the state’s population, so SurveyUSA only polled 63 Texans in East Texas and 25 Texans in that area of the Gulf Coast. Thus, the results were not statistically significant, and not well-balanced to represent the mix of types of people in each area.  In East Texas, 33% supported East Texas secession, 37% were opposed, and 30% were unsure. In those counties of the Gulf Coast area, 40% were in favor, 20% opposed it, and 40% unsure – but a poll of 25 people is quite unlikely to be accurate.

Texas can remain a red state

In recent years, I’ve advocated for creating secession organizations in Louisiana and Alabama as the best way forward for regaining sovereignty for conservatives. But this poll, by a top-rated pollster, convinces me that conservatives everywhere should be devoting their time and effort toward Texas independence (TEXIT). Although it is barely a red state now, according to election results, any evidence that Texas will actually gain independence would cause a flood of conservatives to move into the state, making it a red state again. Even a small percentage of the conservatives of 49 states adds up to a lot if they all move to one state. Our poll showed that in the Southern states, about 20% of Trump voters would move to a conservative state that secedes if their own state does not, and 24% of Biden voters would leave if their state did secede. Our poll clearly showed that many “very liberal” and “liberal” Texans would leave after Texas gains independence.

Additionally, Texas could restrict voting rights of families who naturalized after a certain date to improve election results. Because of the amnesty of 1986, maybe Texas could choose not to recognize naturalizations that occurred after 1985, or at least the naturalizations for illegal aliens.

Of course the danger for non-Texan US conservatives is the risk that we help the movement but fail to gain permanent residency in Texas or any red state that joins Texas in separating from the US. It seems very likely to me that other states that are more open to us, such as Oklahoma or Arkansas, would separate from the US too, simply because they would understand that Republicans won’t be able to gain the US presidency without Texas.

Next steps

So, why did the Texas Legislature fail to pass the bill that was introduced in 2020 that would have given Texans a vote on independence? The committee chairman didn’t let the bill progress in committee. These poll results weren’t known then.

Texas primary voters didn’t punish do-nothing legislators this year because TNM didn’t have enough money to introduce their slate of candidates to enough voters.

This movement will need a lot of money and volunteers to make independence a priority of state government.

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18 months ago we wrote an article “Current status of secession movements in the US” which still gets a lot of views, but I hope this article will supplant it.

UPDATE: On 7/21/22 FNHI released the results of the poll of the 8th state: New Hampshire. Click here for that.