Texas and California poll in favor of a “National Divorce”

This post was completely revised on Oct 10 to reflect a much deeper analysis.

We analyzed the state-by-state results of a June poll by YouGov/Bright Line that asked Southern residents if they wanted the South to secede, and asked West Coast (with Alaska and Hawaii) residents if they wanted their region to secede. This poll found 29% of all US residents wanted their region to secede in early February, and 37% in June. A UVa poll conducted in late July showed that 41% of Biden and 52% of Trump voters at least somewhat agree that it’s time to split the country, favoring blue/red states seceding from the union. This equates to 46% of voters.

The July poll may be higher than the June poll because they asked 6 weeks later (that’s a long time, as Biden keeps issuing mandates, and Biden voters’ “patience is running out” about our rejection of Covid gene therapy). Differences in procedure between the polls should not make such a big difference. Another possibility is that the questions were different: perhaps the South would prefer to secede along with other red states, not alone, and vice-versa. The West Coast might want to join other blue states rather than going it alone, since most Dems prefer centralization, not states’ rights. (In the case of Texas, there are some Texans who don’t want Texas to be in a union with any other states.)

Although the June poll polled voters and non-voters, our tabulation of their raw data shows that the Biden voters were 24.6% in favor of their region seceding, and Trump voters were 44.4% in favor. Non-voters were 51.1% in favor! One of the differences between the June poll and the July poll was that the July poll didn’t include non-voters. Apparently, it would have had even higher results if it had included them.

Non-voters were only 16% of the respondents of the June poll, even though 46.7% of the US population did not vote for either candidate. Presumably the poll under counted non-voters because they don’t like to answer political polls, and the June poll had a long questionnaire, like most polls. Perhaps the non-voters who did answer that poll are not very representative of non-voters in general, so maybe it would be a bad idea to give their opinions extra weight to make up for the lack of non-voters in the poll. Some states lean so heavily to one party that there is little reason to vote in most elections there. But some non-voters are simply not interested in politics or confident in their own opinions.

The difference between Biden voters being 24.6% in favor in June and 41% in favor in July is 16.4 percentage points, a 66% increase. The difference between Trump voters being 44.4% in favor in June and 52% in favor in July is 7.6 percentage points, a 17% increase. Judging by voters alone, the average state was about 12 percentage points more in favor of secession in July than in June, a 25% increase.

But we can estimate the increase for each state separately depending on the election results of that state, since support from Biden voters increased faster than support from Trump voters. For the July results in the table below, we added 7.6 percentage points or 16.4 percentage points in proportion to the Trump/Biden ratio of the state. We are presenting our own estimates because the July poll raw data is not available and it was not statistically significant for individual states.

As you can see, California, Texas, and Florida voters seem to be in favor of secession as of July 2021, but we can’t be sure about other states because not enough people were polled in those states. A poll should have at least 200 respondents. We didn’t bother to look at states that are landlocked, because our interest is in which state might lead the secession movement. Probably, support for national divorce is strongest in some of the inland states. The poll only had 14 respondents from Idaho.

Since the June poll found that Republicans in the South are 2/3 in favor of seceding (and only 20% of Dems there), then Southern states that are in the control of Republicans should have the political support necessary to declare independence. The July poll will have found even better results there. The June poll also found that on the West Coast, Dems are almost twice as likely to support secession of the West Coast as compared to Republicans, and those states are under the control of Dems. So Oregon and California should have the support in their ruling parties that they need to secede.

A problem is that most of the poll respondents who were opposed were “strongly” opposed, but most of the proponents are “somewhat” in favor. The debate over this idea is still in its infancy. Most op-eds about it are advancing objections that could be easily disproved or discounted. We are in a critical period in the history of this idea, where people are open to being persuaded and need to learn more about why secession is the most pragmatic solution to the disaster we’re approaching. Share our substack.

Another problem is that the secession movement has very few activists and very little financial support. The Texas Nationalist Movement needs many more signature collectors to force a question about Texas independence onto the primary ballot. The deadline is coming up very fast.

The most surprising number in this table is Florida 52% in favor. Perhaps Florida could leave southeastern Florida in the USA, and secede without it. Orlando could also be left behind, along with the nearest port on the east coast, as shown below. This would leave Florida with 1.9 Trump voters per Hillary voter.

In prior years, we had feared that Dem support for splitting the country would wane as they cemented control over the US, but they actually seem to be getting more impatient about not getting what they want immediately. Their expectations keep increasing, so their dissatisfaction is still increasing. Secession in 1860/1861 would have been peaceful if both geographical areas had been in favor of splitting the country. Let it be so in our decade.

If you want to tabulate the percentage for your state, the raw data for the poll is here. But only 2 states had more than 200 respondents.

Our introduction to the idea of splitting the US is here. We discuss the status of secession movements here.

8 thoughts on “Texas and California poll in favor of a “National Divorce”

  1. A lot of people on the right will not like this map because the left will end up with most of the coast line on the West Coast, and a good part of it on the East Coast too. I think it would be a good deal because It would leave us with vast portions of land, and lots of mountains to travel to. Just think, no more giving away the land.

  2. That leaves the red states with the Mississippi and the Gulf Coast which is a pretty good deal. With regulations in California getting stricter that coast is going to be worthless in a few years anyway.

  3. Some thoughts:
    1. Secession would probably start as a state level movement, with regions of states breaking away later.
    2. The southern tier of the Southwest would go blue due to its proximity to California, being sandwiched by blue areas and large hispanic population.
    3. Regardless of the location to ports, the center of gravity for secession would be north in Texas, where it comes together with Arkansas and Oklahoma.
    4. I can’t imagine borders with this many islands. The NE would undoubtedly have a finger that captures the Rust Belt as one continuous territory. And the West Coast and the southern SW would be the blue territory. Other areas would resolve by migration to their ideological homelands.

    1. The Great Lakes are interconnected. They are international waters (because of Canada). They have an outlet to the Atlantic Ocean. In times of peace, the red states will allow trade. The connection between Chicago/Detroit/Cleveland/Buffalo could possibly have train connections (with no red-state stops) under the sovereignty of the blue states. Maybe even their own freeways with no red-state off ramps. Read our first ever post. It talks about our map. There is a land connection through Canada between Detroit and Buffalo.

      1. Fair point. And Canada would undoubtedly be especially friendly with the Blue States, possibly joining with them eventually (?) making it one connected entity regardless.

  4. Of course ZOG will never allow secession and will be prepared to use all means fair and foul to prevent it. I am reminded of a Sicilian proverb: “Never ask for something that you can’t take.” The upshot of all this, leaving any “legal” niceties aside, is that if enough White people come to support secession ZOG will be left powerless to stop it.

  5. If the Red/Blue state separation is primarily ideology and not the desire for one to dominate the other, then one would think it could be a very amicable divorce. Unfortunately it seems blue states agenda includes the dominance of red states. The real problem is, if we must depend upon the federal legislative process to have the divorce then it will never occur. Each state should have a free open election, not dependent upon federal or local legislature, that has three choices; Red, Blue, or None . Such results would determine nationhood of states. I for one am a Texan and a “Free Stater.” Texas is red not purple.

    1. You have almost, but not quite, grasped the entire point of the secessionist exercise. The need for power in human affairs is simple: to be able to dominate and to have the ability to resist being dominated. Ideology is a mere outcropping of the will to power, designed to give rulers power over the masses by ensuring mass mental conformity.

      The quest for secession IS a quest for power – in this case state power. As such, “the federal legislative process” should be regarded as a mere obstacle, neither permanent nor insurmountable. To believe differently is to remain ideologically enslaved by ZOG. To wish to secede is to no longer recognize the legitimacy of ZOG’s power, in any sense.

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