Texas doesn’t have to become a blue state if enough determined men are willing to take action.
Why Texas would remain conservative if it secedes soon, especially if the state splits.
If Texas secedes, it can decide who gets Texas citizenship, who gets permanent residency, and that wouldn’t have to include every US citizen who is currently in Texas. If it chooses wisely, the state would be redder. As a sovereign nation, Texas would also get to decide who may move into the state from the USA or other countries. Ending the immigration of underclass migrants who vote for welfare would help keep Texas red.
Also, Texas can split. The treaty with which Texas entered the Union states that Texas has the right to split into up to five states unilaterally. It could let the Rio Grande Valley become a separate state, and possibly San Antonio, and Austin could be included in that. Even Houston could split off.
If Texas secedes while it is still a red state, conservative US citizens (including native sons) would move in to escape liberal federal judges, a federal government approaching bankruptcy, and a Democrat House of Representatives. Some Texans would choose to leave for political reasons, or because they expect less welfare after secession. Entrepreneurs would move in to be free of federal regulation. These migrations would make Texas more red.
Splitting the state
would make Texas more likely to secede because the northern part would be
more conservative and more homogeneous.
At current rates of immigration, Texas will be a blue state by the 2024 or 2028 elections. Texans are known for taking pride in their state. Clearly conservative Texans won’t be able to take pride in Texas if its government embraces the Leftist agenda as California and New York do. Splitting the state is the path most likely to lead to being able to take pride in Texas again.
The 2016 presidential election results are shown on all the red/blue maps in this document.
Texans didn’t always have control over the Rio Grande Valley.
In fact, the Republic of the Rio Grande was an independent nation in 1840.
We did an analysis to get a feel for the effect of seceding from the US on the political demographics of Texas. If 4.5% of Trump voters and Libertarians from the 49 states moved in, and 20% of Hillary voters moved out, then Texas would have 2.45 Trump or Libertarian voters per Hillary or Green voter. A document explaining the results of that analysis is here: https://redstatesecession.org/the-effects-of-texas-secession-on-the-politics-of-the-us-and-on-texas/
If Texas secession causes other red states to give up on US elections, and they form a red-state federation (whether Texas chooses to join or not), Texas would not receive as many conservatives moving in from around the US. We assume that 15% of Trump and Libertarian voters in blue states would move to a red state, and 15% of Hillary and Green voters would move out of Texas. In this case, Texas would have 1.63 Trump and Libertarian voters per Hillary and Green voter. The migration of non-voters is irrelevant to politics if they continue to not vote.
This is assuming that Texas gives Texas citizenship to every US citizen who is in Texas or moving to Texas. If Texas refuses to give Texas citizenship to US citizens in families that recently immigrated to the US from overseas, the numbers would be even better. Texas was overwhelmingly Anglo before Ted Kennedy’s 1965 law allowed a flood of unskilled lower-class voters from third-world countries to gain US citizenship.
[Update: we’ve added updates for the 2020 election. In 2020 Texas went from 1.27 Trump voters per Hillary voter to 1.12 Trump voters per Biden voter. The Rio Grande Valley was less anti-Trump in 2020 than in 2016 (because the fake news about his comments about Mexicans faded). But cities became more anti-Trump, including San Antonio, Austin, Houston, and Ft. Worth. The change in the Rio Grande Valley makes the proposal in this article less worthwhile because getting rid of it doesn’t change Texas as much in 2020 as it would have in 2016.]
Quantifying how splitting Texas makes it more conservative, and therefore more likely to secede:
El Paso could become a city-state when Texas splits. Or Texas could make a deal with New Mexico to relocate (shift) state borders. Borders between states have been changed many times in US history, most recently in 1999 between Nebraska and Missouri. To learn more about moving state borders, read this: https://redstatesecession.org/virginia-counties-can-become-a-part-of-another-state/ [Update: in 2020, the remainder of TX would be 1.14 Trump/Biden]
Texas could give El Paso to New Mexico in return for the conservative parts of eastern New Mexico, which used to be claimed by Texas.
This idea for a state split leaves a land route to Mexico. This is useful in case Texas becomes an independent country. It wouldn’t need to go through customs of another country to trade with Mexico by land.
This idea still leaves the Alamo in Texan hands.
[[Update: in 2020, the remainder of TX would be 1.208 Trump/Biden, and we’d leave the upstream half of the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, except El Paso]
By also removing Cameron County, the size of Texas would be reduced to about 87% of its current population. [Update: in 2020, the remainder of TX would be 1.215 Trump/Biden, and we’d leave the upstream half of the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, except El Paso]
By also removing Austin and even parts of Williamson County, the size of Texas would be reduced to about 77% of its current population. That leaves 8 million in the new state, which is more than the US average state (6.6 million). [Update: in 2020, the remainder of TX would be 1.32 Trump/Biden, and we’d leave the upstream half of the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, except El Paso]
Size of difference in Trump and Biden 2020 results in each county:
If Houston becomes a state (a city-state), in addition to everything mentioned above, Texas would be quite conservative, even before any migrations. The Hillary-voting portions of Fort Bend County (Sugarland) could join Houston, but most of the conservative parts of Harris County could remain in Texas. In the US, states are sovereign and have the authority to unilaterally redraw county lines. In fact, most counties were created by a state government.
By removing Houston and parts of Ft. Bend County, the size of Texas would be reduced to about 60% of its current population (17 million). Houston is populous enough (5 million) to be an average-sized state. [Update: in 2020, removing Houston in addition to everything above would make Texas 1.56 Trump/Biden, and we’d leave the upstream half of the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, except El Paso]
Houston (Harris County) is not land-locked. It has access to the Gulf of Mexico via Galveston Bay where it has major ports.
Harris County is actually not very liberal by US standards. It gave 706,471 votes to Hillary and 544,960 to Trump. That’s 1.3 Hillary votes per Trump vote. But it is so populous that getting rid of it is the key to making Texas the most conservative.
Unfortunately, any state split may not be enough to guarantee secession from the USA. Alabama has a history of resisting the federal government in 1861 and during the civil rights era. Yet, even with 1.81 Trump voters per Hillary voter, it has not seceded. Admittedly it is a smaller state less able to thrive during hostile relations with the USA. Yet it hasn’t invited other states in the interior to join it in seceding, such as Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia.
Texas is salvageable. We have no role in the Texas Nationalist Movement, but we recommend that they be supported at www.tnm.me . It’s an organization working for the independence of Texas.