We believe that a pre-negotiated split is less likely to lead to war over the next two decades than the status quo. 31% of Americans think that civil war is likely within 5 years. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2018/31_think_u_s_civil_war_likely_soon
The following two facts together prove that the US would not attack a seceding state: Firstly, the US military is under civilian control. Secondly, 68% of Americans are open to any state seceding according to https://johnzogbystrategies.com/secessionist-sentiment-remains-a-plurality-among-likely-voters/
47.4% of active military personnel according to a 2014 poll said yes when asked if they support the secession of their state. When you realize that many of them come from landlocked, small states that are unlikely to secede alone, 47.4% is a huge number that would only grow if the more practical solution of splitting the USA in two were polled. https://anepigone.blogspot.com/2018/05/us-political-dissolution-question-of.html
Unlike Americans in the 1800s, Americans today are very averse to casualties. Things are different now than 150 years ago… can we all admit that? Fox News polling in Oct 2014 showed that 52% of Americans were OK with California seceding.
Moreover, Americans aren’t worried about a state enslaving people or even reinstating Jim Crow. Texas voted 44% for Hillary or the Green Party, so I doubt they are going to reinstate Jim Crow in the year 2017. So why would America be motivated to rule a state against its will? What benefit would America get from that? In the 1860s, the feds got 90% of their income from the South. Today, the South is a drain on their budget.
Unlike in 1861, today Americans are related to people on both sides of the border. No one wants to bomb their cousins. Prior to 1861, there were very few marriages or migrations across the Mason-Dixon line because it was a dividing line between cultural groups.
Nowadays countries are not hungry to grow larger. Half the American military is plenty to hold off any nation on Earth. Trade will continue across borders whether the state secedes or not. And America has plenty of trading partners, even if that state were silly enough to stop trading with the US.
Moreover, some states would probably support a state’s secession so that they could follow the lead of the first state. Their Congressmen would be supportive.
Red states would probably support a red-state’s secession because it provides an example that they can follow. Those states could then federate with Texas, or at least federate with each other. Democrats would be glad to see Texas’ political influence out of the USA.
The US respects the self determination of peoples around the world. That’s why Bill Clinton bombed Serbia to force it to allow Kosovo to secede.
A president who gave an order to attack US citizens is in danger of being impeached or shot. Besides posse comitatus, most military won’t fire on US citizens in a peaceful secession situation.
“A 2009 poll from the aforementioned Zogby poll showed a large number of military personnel and their families believed that States had an absolute right to leave the Union. As published in Forbes, “42% of members of the armed forces and 41% of people who have a family member active in the armed forces agree secession is a right…” The fact that 42 percent view it as a right carries weight. It means they view it as a fundamental freedom, like freedom of speech and freedom of religion.” Miller, Daniel. Texit: Why and How Texas Will Leave The Union (Kindle Locations 1851-1855). Defiance Press.
Additionally, 10% of the US military is Texan. Anyone “in the United States military who took up arms against the lawfully elected government of Texas or its citizens would be guilty of treason under Article 1, Section 22 of the Texas Constitution.” Miller, Daniel. Texit: Why and How Texas Will Leave The Union (Kindle Locations 1850-1851). Defiance Press.
“Although the lack of public support and the impracticality of military action are significant factors, the real reason the federal government won’t stop Texas from leaving the Union is one of the most biggest drivers of federal policy―economics. Economies hate disruption. Texit would no doubt be disruptive, but it comes down to what is more disruptive. Ordering military intervention would be economically disruptive and would create shock waves throughout the U.S. and global economies. Carrying out any type of military intervention would be even worse. The best course of action for the United States would be to mitigate disruption in the most practical way it can―at the negotiating table. It is the most practical choice open to the federal government in dealing with a successful Texit vote.” Miller, Daniel. Texit: Why and How Texas Will Leave The Union (Kindle Locations 1861-1866). Defiance Press. “It is far easier to negotiate a free trade agreement with a Texas that’s on its way out the door than it is to militarily occupy its capital in Austin.
It is easier to negotiate a currency union with Texas than it is to deal with the possibility of massive insubordination in your military. With a negotiated separation, the federal government has the opportunity to show that it believes in the principles that it has espoused around the world for the last 70 years. It is better to keep goods and services flowing than to have them come to a dead stop.” Miller, Daniel. Texit: Why and How Texas Will Leave The Union (Kindle Locations 1872-1875). Defiance Press.
Here’s a partial list of countries that seceded peacefully:
1831 Belgium from the Netherlands1857-1987 (gradual) New Zealand from UK
1867 Canada from UK
1901 Australia from UK
1905 Norway from Sweden
1917 Finland from Russia
1934 South Africa from UK
1944 Iceland from Denmark
1946 Philippines from USA
1945-1970 most third-world colonies of European countries
1964 Malta1965 Singapore from Malaysia
1974 Comoros1977 Djibouti1979 Saint Vincent & The Grenadines1986 Marshall Islands and Micronesia from USA
1989 Eastern Bloc nations from Warsaw Pact
1991 Slovenia, Macedonia from Yugoslavia (the photo here shows Slovenian police taking the Yugoslav military into custody)
1991 each of the republics of the USSR
1993 Czechia and Slovakia from Czechoslovakia
1994 Palau (Pacific island) from USA
2006 Montenegro from Serbia
2019 UK from EU
For a longer list, see here