If Texas votes in 2028 as it did in 2024 (57% GOP), the Texas Legislature will have a GOP supermajority in each chamber able to override vetoes. That means that Texas could still have a referendum on independence soon after the next presidential election, when a Dem victory might convince Texans to secede.

Is it possible for a Dem to become president in the same election that Texans vote for state GOP like in 2024? Actually yes. Trump won 6 swing states in 2024, but only by 1% in 3 of them.

The Texas Legislature could create a negotiating team to negotiate the independence (if the referendum result is YES), cutting the Dem governor out of the negotiation. Then 2/3 of the Legislature could create a process for a new constitution requiring a new election, in which a president is chosen, replacing the governor.

The Texas Legislature could easily have a veto-proof supermajority by 2029. There are 8 R & 7 D up for re-election in the Senate in 2028. We only need to net 2 more. In the House, the state only needs to vote an average 56% R to get a supermajority, because of gerrymandering. According to the Texas Partisan Index, 2/3 of Texas House districts voted 56% D or less in 2020-2024 using the current district boundaries. 2028 will be a presidential year, when the GOP does better. (Nowadays, the GOP turns out less in midterms because the working class is GOP now).

So Texas Lege could easily create a referendum on secession in early 2029.

Although most Texas vetoes happen too late to be overridden by the Legislature, that’s only because the Legislature sends most bills to the governor when they’re ending their session. A high-priority bill can simply be pushed through the Legislature a little quicker, so that it arrives more than 10 days (not including Sundays) before the end of session. This gives the Legislature time to override any veto (10-day limit).

The Texas Senate is still GOP next year. It won’t let the House do a redistricting . The Senate can also block bills that would make Dem fraud or ballot harvesting easier. My concern is a lack of state prosecution of it.

Another way to get around the governor is to pass a state constitutional amendment. That takes 2/3 of each chamber, just like an override.

Again, TEXIT (Texas independence) is popular with D voters, so it’s possible that D legislators would vote for TEXIT. Although they are famous for voting as a bloc to avoid being shut out of their patronage system, such an important issue may override such considerations.

Texas has a Dem governor for 4 years. TX Supreme Court is 5 D, 4 R now. It would be easier to get half rather than 2/3 of the legislature to vote for a bill, but if the political mood is right, we can do it. Admittedly, in the current political mood, it would be almost impossible to get almost 100% of the GOP to vote for something this controversial. There will have to be some event that makes Texans feel more hopeless about the Union. An event such as economic depression, sovereign debt crisis, failure in war, strife over the 2028 election, or dastardly deeds.

As we explained in last week’s article, Louisiana, Alabama & Florida could lead the red states out of the Union. Even if no D’s vote to create a referendum, it could pass with this % of the R legislators:
LA 72%
AL 72%
FL 81% (FL has citizen-initiated referendums too)