Unreported 2017 Reuters Poll Shows States Ready to Secede

JANUARY 16, 2019·

In July 2016, more Texans were in favor of Texas secession than opposed! The last poll in 2017 was from Trump’s election until his inauguration, and it showed support declined somewhat, but Hispanics and the “very liberal” were in support of secession.

Texas independence is inevitable because Texas Hispanics support Texas independence more than two-to-one over remaining in the USA, and Hispanics will become the majority in Texas in the coming years. In fact there were 2.2 Hispanics in favor for every Hispanic opposed. Only 20% of Hispanic Texans in that poll were opposed to TEXIT (Texas independence from the USA) but 46.2% were in favor and 32.6% expressed no opinion.

This data was extracted by us from Reuters’ crosstabs here: http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM350Y14/type/oneshot/filters/DQSTATE:5/dates/20161109-20170129/collapsed/false

This information was never published by Reuters and has never been published elsewhere except on my Facebook page. Reuters only released the data on California, but did not release the data for the other 49 states. This might be because they didn’t get enough responses in some states to meet their minimum 300 responses required to be considered statistically significant on a per-state basis in all 50 states. But aren’t 200 responses interesting enough?

Secession is as popular as non-secession in Wyoming as of 2017!
Only a minority were opposed to state secession in Alaska, Hawaii, and Texas in both the Trump era and the Obama era!

Notice that the idea of several states seceding together is not mentioned in the poll. It’s surprising that in small, landlocked states, any voter at all would want their state to secede alone. How many more would be in favor of splitting the USA into two large, sustainable, defensible countries? The answer is in the update at the end of this article.

Also, even I myself was opposed to secession in Nov 2016-Jan 2017 before I saw the strength and virulence of the deep state and the #resistance. So I’m pleased to see that so many were in favor of secession at that time and I would expect that the next poll will show even more support.

In our experience, we’ve found that most voters have never heard the arguments for the possibility and peacefulness of secession. Creating newsworthy events will give the movement publicity that will increase the chances that people will hear these arguments.

If one state proves that secession is possible, it will become a more popular idea elsewhere.

For this reason, we believe that the percentage that answers “don’t know” is a percentage that could easily be persuaded. Therefore we highlighted the percentage that is opposed to secession. Those who are not opposed could more easily be persuaded. If a state has less than 50% opposed, that state is potentially fertile ground for a secession movement. Although even those who are opposed can be persuaded.

More Alaskans were in favor of secession than opposed in 2014. A 2010 referendum effort was struck down by the Alaska Supreme Court, but supreme court justices do not last forever.

We adjusted the 2014 and 2017 Reuters poll data for Texas to account for the over-sampling of Anglo respondents. The 2016 poll result shown here has been adjusted assuming the same average over-sampling occurred in 2016. https://www.quora.com/How-much-of-the-Texas-population-support-independence-from-the-USA/answer/Chris-Rhodes-65# 2017 data was adjusted for California: https://www.quora.com/How-likely-is-it-that-California-will-secede-from-the-US/answer/Chris-Rhodes-65

States that send more money in taxes to DC than they receive in benefits from the federal government, or at least better than the average, are called donor states. Of the top 15 states listed here, the donor states in 2010 were Alaska, Texas, Delaware, Wyoming, California, New York, and Louisiana. Especially Delaware and Wyoming. Of these 15 states, the worst opposite of a donor state in 2010 were Mississippi and Alabama. This is an argument for Delaware as fertile ground for secession, as it only got 60% of the average federal benefits per dollar of taxes as compared to the average state. This will probably always be a problem for Delaware as long as there is a federal income tax because the incomes are high in Delaware.

Alaska and Hawaii are perceived as strategic military assets by the USA. But I guess a deal could be made to leave military bases there. When Cuba seceded from the US, the US kept Guantanamo.

Land-locked states such as Wyoming and Nevada would be far more in favor of secession if multi-state secession were offered. But could a campaign to be the first state to secede possibly withstand debate in a land-locked state? We don’t see how, because the threat of embargo seems strong. It seems to us that a land-locked state should not be the first state to secede, but it is possible for it to vote for secession contingent on other states voting to secede. For example, Nevada could vote for secession contingent on California secession as a way to encourage California to secede.

According to the data on Reuters’ site, in 2014, the idea of one’s own state seceding was most popular among those who call themselves “very conservative” in both red states and, strangely, even blue states. CA is an example. Perhaps blue-state conservatives wanted to remove one layer of government, or they thought that they could win their state back to conservatism, or they planned to leave their state after secession.

After Trump’s election, in some blue states, such as CA, NV, and NM, secession became the most popular among those who say they “lean liberal” or are “very liberal”, but not those who say they are a “moderate liberal.”

In 2014 and 2017 in TX and IL, both very conservative voters and very liberal voters were more in favor of state secession than average voters. In 2017 in TX and IL, both very conservative voters and very liberal voters were more in favor of state secession than average voters, but moderates and leaners to either side were not.

In 2017 in NY, only very conservative voters are more in favor of NY secession than average voters are.

UPDATE: NEW POLL! When the first state secedes, it won’t get much push-back because a recent YouGov poll shows that ONE THIRD of US residents said yes to: “Would we be better off if Democratic and Republican parts of the country split apart to form their own separate countries.”

Don’t be afraid to talk about secession with your friends. Many already agree. Don’t be afraid to share our posts.

The poll was done twice, polling 1000 in the weeks leading up to the Nov 2018 election and polling 863 in the weeks following. Dems and Republicans were equally agreeable to splitting the country, but the pollster says “Reps moved +2% more favorably toward disunion after losing control of the house. Dems moved 2.5% in the opposite direction.”

33.5% were in favor before the election, and 30.3% were in favor after the election. The pollster says there were not enough responses to break the numbers down by state, although Texas and California scored highly on splitting. Source: https://twitter.com/NathanKalmoe/status/1102357788754354182

Image from: https://www.libertymachinenews.com/the-ideological-fracturing-of-america.html

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