2/3 of Republicans in the South support Secession
It’s time to create secessionist organizations in Louisiana and Alabama.
A new YouGov scientific poll shows that support for secession has grown greatly since early February. Now, as of June, it is almost the majority view among those polled in the American South, which includes non-citizens and others not registered to vote. Perhaps among likely voters, it’s already the majority.
Since two-thirds of Republicans in the South supported it in June, it’s likely that the more conservative states support secession more than the average state in the South, which had 1.17 Trump votes per Biden vote. So it is very likely that a majority of residents of the most conservative states of the South already support secession, including Alabama (1.7 Trump votes per Biden vote) and Louisiana (1.47 Trump votes per Biden vote), two states that are not land-locked.
The form of the question polled was: “Would you support or oppose [your state] seceding from the United States to join a new union with [list of states in new union]?”
These results are particularly encouraging because the opinion of Republicans is more politically powerful than the opinion of others in conservative states, since the elected officials atop their state government are Republican.
Why Alabama and Louisiana need secession organizations, just like Texas has
Of all states in the US that are not land-locked, Alabama has the most conservative voting record, and Louisiana is in second place. It only takes one state declaring independence to force other states to make a decision on whether to join that state in a new union or face the prospects of staying in the old Union with fewer red states. This is likely to begin with a state that is not landlocked, so that the state’s overseas trade can’t be stifled by the customs department of the US, or a lack of permission for overflights of US territory.
More than other states, there’s one reason why it’s a little difficult for Louisiana to obtain the acquiescence of the US on secession: Louisiana’s stranglehold on the Mississippi River makes it of strategic importance to the entire central US. But a state like Louisiana or Alabama could declare that its independence would not be effective until certain other states had joined it in a new union. For Louisiana, the advantage of doing this is that if many states of the Mississippi Valley join Louisiana, then that new union deserves control over New Orleans more than the US does.
Minnesota and Illinois are the only blue states in that watershed, and both states have access to international waters through the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Seaway, which is reachable from the Illinois River. The states north of Louisiana are very conservative: Arkansas (1.79 Trump votes per Biden vote), Oklahoma (2 Trump votes per Biden vote), Tennessee (1.62 Trump votes per Biden vote), and Kentucky (1.72 Trump votes per Biden vote). All of the red states except Alaska are contiguous.
Louisiana has a robust economy aided by off-shore oil. Depending on the price of oil, it’s sometimes a donor state to the federal government, meaning that the people of the state give to the feds (through taxes) more than they get from the feds (in federal spending). Since the federal government spends more than it taxes (because of huge budget deficits), it’s not surprising that most states are “taker” states.
Alabama’s status as a “taker” state would not matter if the federal government loses the ability to fund states. The US economy will eventually hit another depression. This could happen soon through a sovereign debt crisis caused by loss in confidence in the ability of the US to repay loans, or a loss in confidence in the US gov’s willingness to restrain itself from printing so much money that the dollar becomes worth much less.
Even now, the amount that the worst “taker” states receive from the federal government is not a great percentage of income. And the feds waste most of that money anyway, so it wouldn’t be a great loss if a state secedes. Alabama wouldn’t have to replace all of the federal spending, even if it did choose to replace federal taxes. Unlike businesses, neither households nor states need to make a “profit.” They just have to cut spending to match their revenue. Just because the feds choose to give money to poor states doesn’t mean those states are “dependent” on the feds. Welfare queens can always take a bus to a blue state if a red state secedes.
Next step for the secessionist movement
It’s easier to click “support” in an online poll than it is to take a risk on actually seceding. But this poll is the best news we’ve seen yet for the secessionist movement. We strongly believe that it’s time to create a secessionist organization for Alabama and for Louisiana. Such an organization could channel the will of the people into a force that would engage in state politics to pressure or even primary politicians who don’t work for the secession of their state. It would educate the public, to inoculate them against the lies of the mainstream media about secession.
Citizens for Greater Idaho was able to obtain quite a bit of news coverage and momentum from A) getting permission to gather signatures in some counties to force a question onto county ballots, and B) actually winning elections in 7 counties. A similar strategy could work for a secessionist movement in Louisiana or Mississippi. A single deep-pocketed donor could make this happen, or a just a handful of volunteers with pocket change.
Unfortunately, Alabama doesn’t allow ballot initiatives (referendums) on topics like this. According to Ballotopedia, the city of Birmingham is the only locality in Alabama that allows such a thing. But Ballotopedia says of Louisiana:
· The power and process of petitioning for the amendment of charters is mandated by State Law for all 23 Home rule counties and all 31 Home rule cities, towns, and villages.
· Approximately 15 charted counties out the 23 total had explicit provisions for initiative and referendum for ordinances in their charters.
· Approximately 15 charted cities, towns and villages out of the 31 total had explicit provisions for initiative and referendum for ordinances in their charters.
Mississippi had a statewide initiative process until May 2021, when the MS Supreme Court determined that the process was broken. If the MS legislature fixes the initiative process, then MS might be a good state to try. Secession historically has been as popular in MS as in AL or Louisiana, but MS only has 1.4 Trump votes per Biden vote and it benefits from the difference in federal taxes and federal spending more than any other state. Mississippi still has a working initiative process for amending the city charters of any of its 298 cities, towns, and villages that could be useful, although cities aren’t as conservative as counties.
None of these three states has an avenue for statewide referendums, constitutional amendments, or constitutional conventions, without going through the legislature. Thus, Alabama efforts will have to focus on working through the state legislature.
Where to start? Well, I’d do a poll of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Create a new organization for at least Louisiana and Alabama. League of the South is explicitly racial, and hasn’t made much progress. Elected officials don’t have the guts to be seen talking with them. Off the top of my head, I can think of one organization in Alabama that might be able to give you a couple pointers or help you network with others: The Mises Institute.
Let’s not neglect Texas
The Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) recently announced a drive to gather enough signatures to put secession on Texas Republican and/or Democratic Party primary ballots statewide. If you live in Texas or Oklahoma, obviously you should be assisting this effort, unless you have reason to believe that TNM won’t be able to recruit enough volunteers to get it on to either statewide ballot in time.
Yes, it’s disappointing that during the 2021 legislative session, only a couple Texas state legislators were willing to associate their names with TNM’s effort to get the Texas legislature to give the voters a vote on secession. Maybe this is because of the heavy flak the mainstream media fires at such legislators. But this poll shows that the public supports it, and a referendum would be successful if it gets on the ballot.
Texas voted 1.12 Trump votes per Biden vote, but demographics (low birthrate for Anglos) are against Texas remaining red unless it secedes and redefines who has the right to vote in Texas. Across the US, Dems are graduating a new crop of brainwashed students every year, and giving the right to vote to almost a million foreigners per year. Yes, I know the election results weren’t accurate in some states but I didn’t hear a lot of news from Texas on this.
Frankly, the energy on the Right for Texas secession is naturally going to be stunted in a purple state like Texas, as compared to a red state like Alabama or Louisiana. What’s the fun of creating a new country if the Dems might take it over? On the other hand, I found that in 2017 Texans were twice as likely to “like” or “share” my secession Facebook ads as compared to Alabamans or Louisianans. I think this means that Texans have a culture where it’s more acceptable to be seen by your friends advocating for secession, because Texan nationalism is still strong, but Alabamans and Louisianans think of themselves as “Americans.” But now that the ruling class of the US is seen as opposed to Americanism and real Americans, there’s an opening for secessionism to become popular in any red state.
Honestly, I don’t know what changed between the poll in February and poll in June to make secession more popular. I’d be interested in your thoughts. Perhaps it just took a few months for people to process what they’d learned from the theft of the presidential election, the media’s success in pushing the Supreme Court to support the steal, and the failure of Congress to correct this mess. Or maybe it took this long for Q followers to accept the reality that conservatives have no power in a 50-state Union.
Can you imagine the sense of purpose society would feel after secession, to build a federation of red states into the greatest country the world has ever seen? To make it prosperous and strong through their own work or entrepreneurship, through educating their kids? A federation that loves truth, God, goodness, righteousness and justice? We lost that in the 1960’s. But the red states would strive to be stronger and better than their neighbors, the blue states. I hope you didn’t miss our most important essay of 2020. Also, our most recent survey of the secession movement in the US was in December.
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UPDATE: Minor details and a state-by-state guess
An oddity of these poll results is that the overall number for the South is only 44% in favor while independents and Republicans in the South are at least 50% in favor. This is only possible if most of the Southerners polled were Democrats. Yet the South always votes Republican overall nowadays. So a more representative sample of the South would have given a higher number for the overall South.
If we ignore that number we can calculate our own if we trust the poll results given by YouGov for Southerners of each party, and use Gallup Polling’s estimate of the percentage of Southerners who are Dems, independents, and Republicans (41%, 18%, and 41%). But that gives us the exact same number YouGov found: 44%. The problem seems to be that Gallup reports that Republicans and Democrats are equally strong in the South, but election results strongly favor Republicans, perhaps because of Gallup polling issues or the difference in opinion between the residents who actually vote and the residents (including non-citizens) who don’t.
If we assume that all Southern Trump voters are Republican and all Southern Biden voters are Dem, then Southerners are 45% in favor of secession.
We tried to estimate the overall number in favor of secession of the Southerners who voted in 2020 for president by assuming that the people who voted for Trump were Republicans or independents, and for Biden were Dems or independents, assuming that 18% of the voters were independents, and half of the independents voted for each candidate. We get a number of 46%.
Yes, we know there was rampant fraud in 2020 in Georgia, but there might have been fraud in 2016 too so we’ll use the number wikipedia gives us for 2020. Using the method in the previous paragraph, we calculated for each southern state. This method assumes that in each state, the Dems are 20% in favor, independents are 50% in favor, and Republicans 66% in favor. So the better Trump did in a state, the more secessionist, in this method. Of course, in reality Texas is much more in favor than the average southern state according to previous reports.
This method gives us these results (but in reality we don’t know which states are more in favor of secession):
If you’d like to see actual state-by-state polling, look at our 2017 data here: https://redstatesecession.org/unreported-2017-reuters-poll-shows-states-ready-to-secede/