June Poll Shows Secession from the US is a Winning Issue in many Southern States

2/3 of Republicans in the South support Secession

It’s time to create secessionist organizations in Louisiana and Alabama.

A new YouGov scientific poll shows that support for secession has grown greatly since early February.  Now, as of June, it is almost the majority view among those polled in the American South, which includes non-citizens and others not registered to vote.  Perhaps among likely voters, it’s already the majority.

Since two-thirds of Republicans in the South supported it in June, it’s likely that the more conservative states support secession more than the average state in the South, which had 1.17 Trump votes per Biden vote.  So it is very likely that a majority of residents of the most conservative states of the South already support secession, including Alabama (1.7 Trump votes per Biden vote) and Louisiana (1.47 Trump votes per Biden vote), two states that are not land-locked.

The form of the question polled was: “Would you support or oppose [your state] seceding from the United States to join a new union with [list of states in new union]?”

These results are particularly encouraging because the opinion of Republicans is more politically powerful than the opinion of others in conservative states, since the elected officials atop their state government are Republican.

Why Alabama and Louisiana need secession organizations, just like Texas has

Of all states in the US that are not land-locked, Alabama has the most conservative voting record, and Louisiana is in second place. It only takes one state declaring independence to force other states to make a decision on whether to join that state in a new union or face the prospects of staying in the old Union with fewer red states. This is likely to begin with a state that is not landlocked, so that the state’s overseas trade can’t be stifled by the customs department of the US, or a lack of permission for overflights of US territory.

More than other states, there’s one reason why it’s a little difficult for Louisiana to obtain the acquiescence of the US on secession: Louisiana’s stranglehold on the Mississippi River makes it of strategic importance to the entire central US.  But a state like Louisiana or Alabama could declare that its independence would not be effective until certain other states had joined it in a new union.  For Louisiana, the advantage of doing this is that if many states of the Mississippi Valley join Louisiana, then that new union deserves control over New Orleans more than the US does.

Minnesota and Illinois are the only blue states in that watershed, and both states have access to international waters through the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Seaway, which is reachable from the Illinois River.  The states north of Louisiana are very conservative: Arkansas (1.79 Trump votes per Biden vote), Oklahoma (2 Trump votes per Biden vote), Tennessee (1.62 Trump votes per Biden vote), and Kentucky (1.72 Trump votes per Biden vote).  All of the red states except Alaska are contiguous.

Louisiana has a robust economy aided by off-shore oil. Depending on the price of oil, it’s sometimes a donor state to the federal government, meaning that the people of the state give to the feds (through taxes) more than they get from the feds (in federal spending).  Since the federal government spends more than it taxes (because of huge budget deficits), it’s not surprising that most states are “taker” states.

Alabama’s status as a “taker” state would not matter if the federal government loses the ability to fund states. The US economy will eventually hit another depression.  This could happen soon through a sovereign debt crisis caused by loss in confidence in the ability of the US to repay loans, or a loss in confidence in the US gov’s willingness to restrain itself from printing so much money that the dollar becomes worth much less.

Even now, the amount that the worst “taker” states receive from the federal government is not a great percentage of income.  And the feds waste most of that money anyway, so it wouldn’t be a great loss if a state secedes. Alabama wouldn’t have to replace all of the federal spending, even if it did choose to replace federal taxes.   Unlike businesses, neither households nor states need to make a “profit.” They just have to cut spending to match their revenue.  Just because the feds choose to give money to poor states doesn’t mean those states are “dependent” on the feds.  Welfare queens can always take a bus to a blue state if a red state secedes.

Next step for the secessionist movement

It’s easier to click “support” in an online poll than it is to take a risk on actually seceding.  But this poll is the best news we’ve seen yet for the secessionist movement. We strongly believe that it’s time to create a secessionist organization for Alabama and for Louisiana.  Such an organization could channel the will of the people into a force that would engage in state politics to pressure or even primary politicians who don’t work for the secession of their state.  It would educate the public, to inoculate them against the lies of the mainstream media about secession.

Citizens for Greater Idaho was able to obtain quite a bit of news coverage and momentum from A) getting permission to gather signatures in some counties to force a question onto county ballots, and B) actually winning elections in 7 counties. A similar strategy could work for a secessionist movement in Louisiana or Mississippi.  A single deep-pocketed donor could make this happen, or a just a handful of volunteers with pocket change.

Unfortunately, Alabama doesn’t allow ballot initiatives (referendums) on topics like this.  According to Ballotopedia, the city of Birmingham is the only locality in Alabama that allows such a thing. But Ballotopedia says of Louisiana:

·  The power and process of petitioning for the amendment of charters is mandated by State Law for all 23 Home rule counties and all 31 Home rule cities, towns, and villages.

·  Approximately 15 charted counties out the 23 total had explicit provisions for initiative and referendum for ordinances in their charters.

·  Approximately 15 charted cities, towns and villages out of the 31 total had explicit provisions for initiative and referendum for ordinances in their charters.

Mississippi had a statewide initiative process until May 2021, when the MS Supreme Court determined that the process was broken. If the MS legislature fixes the initiative process, then MS might be a good state to try. Secession historically has been as popular in MS as in AL or Louisiana, but MS only has 1.4 Trump votes per Biden vote and it benefits from the difference in federal taxes and federal spending more than any other state. Mississippi still has a working initiative process for amending the city charters of any of its 298 cities, towns, and villages that could be useful, although cities aren’t as conservative as counties.

None of these three states has an avenue for statewide referendums, constitutional amendments, or constitutional conventions, without going through the legislature. Thus, Alabama efforts will have to focus on working through the state legislature.

Where to start?  Well, I’d do a poll of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Create a new organization for at least Louisiana and Alabama.  League of the South is explicitly racial, and hasn’t made much progress. Elected officials don’t have the guts to be seen talking with them. Off the top of my head, I can think of one organization in Alabama that might be able to give you a couple pointers or help you network with others: The Mises Institute.

Let’s not neglect Texas

The Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) recently announced a drive to gather enough signatures to put secession on Texas Republican and/or Democratic Party primary ballots statewide.  If you live in Texas or Oklahoma, obviously you should be assisting this effort, unless you have reason to believe that TNM won’t be able to recruit enough volunteers to get it on to either statewide ballot in time.  

Yes, it’s disappointing that during the 2021 legislative session, only a couple Texas state legislators were willing to associate their names with TNM’s effort to get the Texas legislature to give the voters a vote on secession.  Maybe this is because of the heavy flak the mainstream media fires at such legislators. But this poll shows that the public supports it, and a referendum would be successful if it gets on the ballot.

Texas voted 1.12 Trump votes per Biden vote, but demographics (low birthrate for Anglos) are against Texas remaining red unless it secedes and redefines who has the right to vote in Texas.  Across the US, Dems are graduating a new crop of brainwashed students every year, and giving the right to vote to almost a million foreigners per year.  Yes, I know the election results weren’t accurate in some states but I didn’t hear a lot of news from Texas on this. 

Frankly, the energy on the Right for Texas secession is naturally going to be stunted in a purple state like Texas, as compared to a red state like Alabama or Louisiana.  What’s the fun of creating a new country if the Dems might take it over? On the other hand, I found that in 2017 Texans were twice as likely to “like” or “share” my secession Facebook ads as compared to Alabamans or Louisianans.  I think this means that Texans have a culture where it’s more acceptable to be seen by your friends advocating for secession, because Texan nationalism is still strong, but Alabamans and Louisianans think of themselves as “Americans.” But now that the ruling class of the US is seen as opposed to Americanism and real Americans, there’s an opening for secessionism to become popular in any red state. 

Closing thoughts

Honestly, I don’t know what changed between the poll in February and poll in June to make secession more popular. I’d be interested in your thoughts.  Perhaps it just took a few months for people to process what they’d learned from the theft of the presidential election, the media’s success in pushing the Supreme Court to support the steal, and the failure of Congress to correct this mess. Or maybe it took this long for Q followers to accept the reality that conservatives have no power in a 50-state Union.

Can you imagine the sense of purpose society would feel after secession, to build a federation of red states into the greatest country the world has ever seen? To make it prosperous and strong through their own work or entrepreneurship, through educating their kids?  A federation that loves truth, God, goodness, righteousness and justice? We lost that in the 1960’s. But the red states would strive to be stronger and better than their neighbors, the blue states. I hope you didn’t miss our most important essay of 2020. Also, our most recent survey of the secession movement in the US was in December.

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Would you like to be polled the next time this question is asked? Sign up to be polled by YouGov here: https://account.yougov.com/us-en/join/main

UPDATE: Minor details and a state-by-state guess

Minor details:

An oddity of these poll results is that the overall number for the South is only 44% in favor while independents and Republicans in the South are at least 50% in favor. This is only possible if most of the Southerners polled were Democrats. Yet the South always votes Republican overall nowadays. So a more representative sample of the South would have given a higher number for the overall South.

If we ignore that number we can calculate our own if we trust the poll results given by YouGov for Southerners of each party, and use Gallup Polling’s estimate of the percentage of Southerners who are Dems, independents, and Republicans (41%, 18%, and 41%). But that gives us the exact same number YouGov found: 44%. The problem seems to be that Gallup reports that Republicans and Democrats are equally strong in the South, but election results strongly favor Republicans, perhaps because of Gallup polling issues or the difference in opinion between the residents who actually vote and the residents (including non-citizens) who don’t.

If we assume that all Southern Trump voters are Republican and all Southern Biden voters are Dem, then Southerners are 45% in favor of secession.

We tried to estimate the overall number in favor of secession of the Southerners who voted in 2020 for president by assuming that the people who voted for Trump were Republicans or independents, and for Biden were Dems or independents, assuming that 18% of the voters were independents, and half of the independents voted for each candidate. We get a number of 46%.

state-by-state guess:

Yes, we know there was rampant fraud in 2020 in Georgia, but there might have been fraud in 2016 too so we’ll use the number wikipedia gives us for 2020. Using the method in the previous paragraph, we calculated for each southern state. This method assumes that in each state, the Dems are 20% in favor, independents are 50% in favor, and Republicans 66% in favor. So the better Trump did in a state, the more secessionist, in this method. Of course, in reality Texas is much more in favor than the average southern state according to previous reports.

This method gives us these results (but in reality we don’t know which states are more in favor of secession):

If you’d like to see actual state-by-state polling, look at our 2017 data here: https://redstatesecession.org/unreported-2017-reuters-poll-shows-states-ready-to-secede/

11 thoughts on “June Poll Shows Secession from the US is a Winning Issue in many Southern States

  1. Any state or region that secedes needs to have a plan to prevent blue-ification by demographics and birthrate. You’ll be called racist but you need to have a way of maintaining the culture you believe and feel comfortable in.

  2. Hello, folks. Just wanted to say a few things about the United States’ government, democracy, and factions. Ok. Well, the US actually has a very good system of government so that is not the problem. The problem more has to do with what happens when you have really fundamentally incompatible factions within the same country. Basically you end up where one man’s meat is another man’s poison. In this case, especially with a democracy in which one faction attempts to impose its will on others, you end up with a situation which is really not satisfactory to anyone.
    So here is the deal, most Americans are not that concerned about the international affairs. The problem is more domestic. The thing is there are a lot of foreigners within America. It isn’t so much a matter of language but more of temperament, background, values, culture etc. One size is not fitting all. Some folks want individual liberty above all else. Some folks are very pro business. Some are warmongers. Some are devoted to religion whereas others are entirely secular. Many are involved with various types of identity politics. A lot want welfare. Some are elitist. Some are populist. There are a lot of people here who just need their own separate countries. There would be areas dedicated to god and guns and liberty and others to science, education, health, welfare, medicine, art, classical music etc. Let’s have some real diversity in just letting folks go their own way and ruling themselves and living as they see fit in a manner which is appropriate to them.

  3. This is awesome news, Red State.

    A couple of points: everybody who has time to fill out a survey every few days should get on the yougov list so that our point of view can be heard more. (You get points for each survey filled out, and all you have to be is honest.)

    Second, the Abbeville Institute is in South Carolina i believe, although von Mises is indeed in Alabama.

    There are alt-right and alt-south people in Alabama that we have a common cause with, even if we don’t agree on all the details. They’ve also noted this good news from the poll. (Search for “Nationalism, Populism, Reaction”.) Maybe if we all pull together we can give our people a new lease on life.

  4. Imagine living in a country with very few leftists. The right constitution could also slow down a leftist, Democrat take over. The left really needs their own country.

  5. The dishonesty and corruption of the Democrat party in collusion with the mainstream media and social media platforms requires a re-examination of the country. The Constitution and the Bill of Right are in jeopardy. So far Republicans have been too weak and even cowardly in reacting to the intolerance and intimidation of Democrats and their violent supporters reminiscent of Hitler’s “Brown shirts”. The Supreme Court and many in Congress may have been intimidated to remain aloof from the highly suspicious presidential election result with so many indications of major ballot fraud. George Washington’s Farewell Address provided a sound guidepost for the nation which has been discarded by contemporary elected fools and liars in Congress including the leadership.

  6. The leftists are just the surface problem. The real problems are the Chinese Communist Party and the globalists trying to destroy us behind the scenes. We would have to keep them out somehow.

  7. “Can you imagine the sense of purpose society would feel after secession”

    What you adumbrate here is none other than the poignant wave of euphoria that shall envelop the hearts of Americans of unalloyed European descent at having reclaimed their existential destiny. A fully realized, headlong rush into what is the very point of our earthly existence: belonging to a blood and soil folk community.

    This can never be achieved by a bloodless, faux-enthusiasm for musty old historical ducuments (“muh constitution”) and tedious, pseudo-intellectual debates about the alleged evils of “socialism.” To live and if need be die to secure the flesh and blood life of our European people – that is the meaning of our lives.

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