Current status of secession movements in the US

Secession movements in the US have very few volunteers. 

Texas has the most mature organization by far, the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM). TNM is disciplined to remain a politically palatable movement, especially among centrists, Republicans, and Libertarians.  Surprisingly, secession is also popular among Latinos and Democrats in Texas, but there is no organization serving these demographics.  Polling has shown that sometimes the majority of Texans are in favor of secession. 

Of course, Texas is currently a purple state, as any US citizen resident in the state may vote in the state, as long as Texas is subject to US law. It’s unclear whether the right wing would have the power to change suffrage laws or restrict Texan citizenship after secession. Texan conservatives complain about their RINO government, which is a problem in most red states.  Most red states are governed by RINOs because currently, state governments don’t have much power in the federal system, and therefore attract little attention from conservative political activists or from the voters themselves.

Texas itself would be very conservative if it split from southern Texas, but unfortunately Texas nationalism is a very potent force, and it’s rare to find a Texan conservative willing to consider splitting the state.  But Texas’s entry to the US was on the condition that it would be free to split into multiple states without Congressional approval.

East Texas and western Louisiana is a vast swath of extremely conservative counties with access to international waters.  If state secession gets blocked, this area might be the place to try county secession of a group of counties from the US. 

If you’re interested in supporting a secession movement with the potential to be successful within the next 2 or 3 years, TNM is your best shot.

If you’re willing to be more patient than that, the “greater Idaho” movement might be your best bet. This movement has already been on the ballot in 4 counties, and was approved by voters in two. Currently, the goal is merely to give Idaho access to international waters and airspace by moving the Oregon/Idaho border to the Pacific Ocean.  But once this goal is achieved, it’s easy to see that this puts Idaho in a better position to secede if it chooses to do so. The organization that supports this movement is called Move Oregon’s Border.  You can help the organization by collecting signatures to put a question on a county ballot in any of twelve counties.

The Alaska Independence Party tried to put secession on the statewide ballot several years ago, but the state supreme court blocked them. Since then, it’s only now come back from a loss of leadership. But it has stated that it will not be focused on secession. It’s an important third party in state politics. Along with Texas, Alaska is the other state where polling has shown a majority of voters in favor of secession.  It’s unlikely the federal government would be willing to gift federal lands to the state of Alaska though.

League of the South is a secessionist movement for The South. It doesn’t appeal to a broad section of today’s electorate because it’s neo-confederate. The Florida branch of the movement is active. The magazine of LoS may be worth your time.

Unfortunately, every single state that is not land-locked has problems holding it back from seceding. Texas is becoming a purple state.  If it is no longer perceived as a red state when it finally secedes, it can’t expect to get a large influx of conservatives or a large outflux of liberals.  Louisiana straddles the river system that services most of the USA, which is the kind of strategic importance that a federal government can’t afford to give up.  Alaska is also strategically important because it has vast amounts of federally-owned oil fields. Alabama and Mississippi give much less to the federal government than they get back.  Florida has a lot of retirees who don’t realize that a seceding state can pay social security just as well as the USA because the USA doesn’t have social security savings either.  Besides, Florida is a purple state, as is Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine.  States along the Canada border are land-locked because Canada can’t afford to defy its ally, the US, when the US tries to apply pressure on a state. South Carolina is dependent on federal military spending.

Any of these states might be a fruitful place to begin political activism.  Alabama has a history of defying the federal government. I’m surprised it no one has started a group like TNM for Alabama yet. If you’d like to assist an existing organization, the best bet may be the first two mentioned above.

Or perhaps the best course of action is to popularize the idea of splitting all red states from all blue states at once. Or organizing a group of landlocked states plus one coastal state (such as Alabama or Louisiana) to secede from the US as a group. For example, a state legislature or state ballot initiative could make independence contingent on legislatures of certain other states passing a secession law. The independence date would be some months after each of the states had passed such a law.

As for blue-state secession, polling in California was good after the election of Trump, but turned strongly against secession when it became clear that Trump was obeying the federal judges who blocked his every move.  Hawaii and Delaware poll strongly on secession, especially Hawaii. But Hawaii’s secession movement is politically self-defeating because it only embraces ethnic Hawaiians.

Polling for each state on secession is here.

Black nationalism is alive and well, as seen in NFAC’s recent comments. But blacks tend to spread out to get jobs created by other races, so they don’t tend to create cities that have strong majorities of their own race. If suburbs and metro areas are included, not even Detroit or Cleveland are majority black. Washington DC recently became minority black again. And Liberia is not a popular destination.

Secessionism in the US is hamstrung by a lack of funding and volunteers. Achievement of the final goal felt too far off until the political situation became so extreme. Now the US faces the threat of imminent mass political violence. There’s a massive pressure to find an escape from the federal system, but not much groundwork has been prepared to make a pathway for splitting the US. If conservatives had focused on building state secession movements, and replacing opposed state politicians with favorable state politicians, we might be in a different position.

Advocating for the splitting of an empire of 336 million people is a daunting task. Most people don’t know where to start. One way to get free news coverage may be to put the topic on county ballots in counties that allow county referendums. In some counties, this can happen either by convincing county commissioners (county supervisors) to put it on the ballot, or by collecting enough signatures on an official petition to force the question onto the ballot. Although in many counties the next election is far away, just the activity of putting it on the ballot forces a conversation. Move Oregon’s Border gained press coverage on Fox News, Glenn Beck, and reached the ears of governors through the simple task of trying to get on county ballots.

The best candidates for locations to begin a county secession movement, in addition to eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, mentioned above, are southern Alabama, southeastern Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle (although this might be controversial among Republicans in Florida since the Republican Party can’t afford to lose voters since it is a swing state).

A county secession question should include the idea of postponing the secession date until an adequate number of counties have approved similar ballot questions, and the group of counties has access to international waters.

5 thoughts on “Current status of secession movements in the US

  1. What an interesting, well-written article…

    BTW, there’s also a NHExit (New Hampshire) seceder movement…

    Also, South Carolina has a secessionist party group on Facebook.

  2. Thanks for the interesting a thorough report. I’d like to remark on three points: Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and California.

    I think the Feds would be extremely reluctant to let Hawaii go, but i think the native Hawaiians have a very strong moral case that that’s their land, and they should be sovereign over it. That may just not cut it, given the huge number of outsiders living there (Japanese, Chinese, and heritage Americans), but they really should have their own country to rule as they see fit.

    I think a similar case can be made for Puerto Rico.

    Now regarding California, there are 3 movements that i’m aware of, the California National Party, which seeks independence; the New California State project, organized by prolific radio broadcaster Paul Preston and seeks a new state composed of the rural counties; and the State of Jefferson, an older movement to form a new state from southern Oregon and northern California. (URLs: https://californianational.party/ https://www.newcaliforniastate.com/ https://soj51.org/ )

    If any of these gain traction it is useful; even the movements to break away from a state can plant a seed. I wouldn’t write off Paul Preston. They seem to have a busy agenda, and have been at it for a few years. They also have some good ideas, like the return of little federalism to the states. (Until the Warren court, many states had effective bicameral legislatures with an upper chamber something like the US Senate: not done on a one-man-per-vote basis but on a one-county-per-vote principle. The US Supreme Court stopped this practice in 1964 in Reynolds vs. Sims. New California State would try to recreate the scheme, because the changing composition of the Court might result in overturning the 1964 decision. That would be good news all around for people wanting limited government.)

    I don’t want to be too verbose about all of this, but it’s just possible that some deal might be struck — CA needs a lot of money, and it has a lot of land, and that land could be a lot more friendly (to say an electric car maker) if the land were under new management.

    And any win anywhere for any secession of any form will help everybody else out.

  3. Im willing to do ANYTHING to preserve
    Our faith , family, GOD and guns.Biden and his bunch are very scary.I will volunteer, door to door. Why dont we have our own Rep ineach state? I would love more info
    God Bless
    Robin Vickers

  4. There is a secessionist movement in southern Tennessee formed in the wake of the election fraud. United Communities of America (UCA). The organization is incorporated and is focused on county and regional conservative government and judicial control. Their site is unitedcommunitiesofamerica (dotcom).

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